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  • Journal article
    Duan D, He J, Zhu X, Zhuo R, Wu Z, Nicolaou G, Huang J, Verscharen D, Yang L, Owen CJ, Fedorov A, Louarn P, Horbury TSet al., 2023,

    , ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS, Vol: 952, ISSN: 2041-8205
  • Journal article
    Halekas JS, Bale SD, Berthomier M, Chandran BDG, Drake JF, Kasper JC, Klein KG, Larson DE, Livi R, Pulupa MP, Stevens ML, Verniero JL, Whittlesey Pet al., 2023,

    , ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 952, ISSN: 0004-637X
    • Cite
    • Citations: 24
  • Journal article
    Sioulas N, Velli M, Huang Z, Shi C, Bowen TAA, Chandran BDG, Liodis I, Davis N, Bale SDD, Horbury TS, de Wit TD, Larson D, Stevens MLL, Kasper J, Owen CJJ, Case A, Pulupa M, Malaspina DMM, Livi R, Goetz K, Harvey PRR, MacDowall RJJ, Bonnell JWWet al., 2023,

    , ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 951, ISSN: 0004-637X
    • Cite
    • Citations: 14
  • Journal article
    Nowack P, Ceppi P, Davis SM, Chiodo G, Ball W, Diallo MA, Hassler B, Jia Y, Keeble J, Joshi Met al., 2023,

    , Nature Geoscience, Vol: 16, Pages: 577-583, ISSN: 1752-0894

    <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Future increases in stratospheric water vapour risk amplifying climate change and slowing down the recovery of the ozone layer. However, state-of-the-art climate models strongly disagree on the magnitude of these increases under global warming. Uncertainty primarily arises from the complex processes leading to dehydration of air during its tropical ascent into the stratosphere. Here we derive an observational constraint on this longstanding uncertainty. We use a statistical-learning approach to infer historical co-variations between the atmospheric temperature structure and tropical lower stratospheric water vapour concentrations. For climate models, we demonstrate that these historically constrained relationships are highly predictive of the water vapour response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. We obtain an observationally constrained range for stratospheric water vapour changes per degree of global warming of 0.31 ± 0.39 ppmv K<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup>. Across 61 climate models, we find that a large fraction of future model projections are inconsistent with observational evidence. In particular, frequently projected strong increases (&gt;1 ppmv K<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup>) are highly unlikely. Our constraint represents a 50% decrease in the 95th percentile of the climate model uncertainty distribution, which has implications for surface warming, ozone recovery and the tropospheric circulation response under climate change.</jats:p>
  • Journal article
    Milan SE, Mooney MK, Bower GE, Taylor MGGT, Paxton LJ, Dandouras I, Fazakerley AN, Carr CM, Anderson BJ, Vines SKet al., 2023,

    , JGR: Space Physics, Vol: 128, Pages: 1-17, ISSN: 2169-9402

    We investigate a 15-day period in October 2011. Auroral observations by the Special Sensor Ultraviolet Spectrographic Imager instrument onboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F16, F17, and F18 spacecraft indicate that the polar regions were covered by weak cusp-aligned arc (CAA) emissions whenever the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) clock angle was small, |θ| < 45°, which amounted to 30% of the time. Simultaneous observations of ions and electrons in the tail by the Cluster C4 and Geotail spacecraft showed that during these intervals dense (≈1 cm−3) plasma was observed, even as far from the equatorial plane of the tail as |ZGSE| ≈ 13 RE. The ions had a pitch angle distribution peaking parallel and antiparallel to the magnetic field and the electrons had pitch angles that peaked perpendicular to the field. We interpret the counter-streaming ions and double loss-cone electrons as evidence that the plasma was trapped on closed field lines, and acted as a source for the CAA emission across the polar regions. This suggests that the magnetosphere was almost entirely closed during these periods. We further argue that the closure occurred as a consequence of dual-lobe reconnection. Our finding forces a significant re-evaluation of the magnetic topology of the magnetosphere during periods of northwards IMF.
  • Journal article
    Williams RG, Ceppi P, Roussenov V, Katavouta A, Meijers AJSet al., 2023,

    , Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol: 381, ISSN: 1364-503X

    <jats:p>The effect of the Southern Ocean on global climate change is assessed using Earth system model projections following an idealized 1% annual rise in atmospheric CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub>. For this scenario, the Southern Ocean plays a significant role in sequestering heat and anthropogenic carbon, accounting for 40% ± 5% of heat uptake and 44% ± 2% of anthropogenic carbon uptake over the global ocean (with the Southern Ocean defined as south of 36°S). This Southern Ocean fraction of global heat uptake is however less than in historical scenarios with marked hemispheric contrasts in radiative forcing. For this idealized scenario, inter-model differences in global and Southern Ocean heat uptake are strongly affected by physical feedbacks, especially cloud feedbacks over the globe and surface albedo feedbacks from sea-ice loss in high latitudes, through the top-of-the-atmosphere energy balance. The ocean carbon response is similar in most models with carbon storage increasing from rising atmospheric CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub>, but weakly decreasing from climate change with competing ventilation and biological contributions over the Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean affects a global climate metric, the transient climate response to emissions, accounting for 28% of its thermal contribution through its physical climate feedbacks and heat uptake, and so affects inter-model differences in meeting warming targets.</jats:p><jats:p>This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.</jats:p>
  • Journal article
    Desai R, Zhang Z, 2023,

    , The Planetary Science Journal, Vol: 4, ISSN: 2632-3338

    The Cassini spacecraft's Grand Finale flybys through Saturn's ionosphere provided unprecedented insight into the composition and dynamics of the gas giant's upper atmosphere and a novel and complex spacecraft-plasma interaction. In this article, we further study Cassini's interaction with Saturn's ionosphere using three dimensional Particle-in-Cell simulations. We focus on understanding how electrons and ions, emitted from spacecraft surfaces due to the high-velocity impact of atmospheric water molecules, could have affected the spacecraft potential and low-energy plasma measurements. The simulations show emitted electrons extend upstream along the magnetic field and, for sufficiently high emission rates, charge the spacecraft to positive potentials. The lack of accurate emission rates and characteristics, however, makes differentiation between the prominence of secondary electron emission and ionospheric charged dust populations, which induce similar charging effects, difficult for Cassini. These results provide further context for Cassini's final measurements and highlight the need for future laboratory studies to support high-velocity flyby missions through planetary and cometary ionospheres.
  • Journal article
    Bale SD, Drake JF, McManus MD, Desai MI, Badman ST, Larson DE, Swisdak M, Horbury TS, Raouafi NE, Phan T, Velli M, McComas DJ, Cohen CMS, Mitchell D, Panasenco O, Kasper JCet al., 2023,

    , NATURE, Vol: 618, Pages: 252-+, ISSN: 0028-0836
    • Cite
    • Citations: 81
  • Journal article
    Malaspina DMM, Toma A, Szalay JRR, Pulupa M, Pokorny P, Bale SDD, Goetz Ket al., 2023,

    , ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL SUPPLEMENT SERIES, Vol: 266, ISSN: 0067-0049
  • Journal article
    Huang Z, Sioulas N, Shi C, Velli M, Bowen T, Davis N, Chandran BDG, Matteini L, Kang N, Shi X, Huang J, Bale SD, Kasper JC, Larson DE, Livi R, Whittlesey PL, Rahmati A, Paulson K, Stevens M, Case AW, de Wit TD, Malaspina DMM, Bonnell JW, Goetz K, Harvey PRR, MacDowall RJJet al., 2023,

    , ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS, Vol: 950, ISSN: 2041-8205
    • Cite
    • Citations: 26
  • Journal article
    Qi Y, Ergun R, Pathak N, Li TC, Eriksson S, Chasapis A, Schwartz SJ, Ahmadi N, Vo T, Newman D, Usanova M, Wilder FD, Shuster Jet al., 2023,

    , ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 950, ISSN: 0004-637X
  • Journal article
    Lee D, Min S-K, Ahn J-B, Cha D-H, Shin S-W, Chang E-C, Suh M-S, Byun Y-H, Kim J-Uet al., 2023,

    , ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 18, ISSN: 1748-9326
  • Journal article
    Davis N, Chandran BDG, Bowen TA, Badman ST, de Wit TD, Chen CHK, Bale SD, Huang Z, Sioulas N, Velli Met al., 2023,

    , ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 950, ISSN: 0004-637X
    • Cite
    • Citations: 22
  • Journal article
    de Moortel I, Eastwood J, Bridges J, Burchell M, Elseworth Y, Imber S, King A, Morton Ret al., 2023,

    , Astronomy and Geophysics, Vol: 64, Pages: 3.34-3.38, ISSN: 0035-8738
  • Journal article
    Baker D, Demoulin P, Yardley SL, Mihailescu T, van Driel-Gesztelyi L, D'Amicis R, Long DM, To ASH, Owen CJ, Horbury TS, Brooks DH, Perrone D, French RJ, James AW, Janvier M, Matthews S, Stangalini M, Valori G, Smith P, Cuadrado RA, Peter H, Schuehle U, Harra L, Barczynski K, Berghmans D, Zhukov AN, Rodriguez L, Verbeeck Cet al., 2023,

    , ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 950, ISSN: 0004-637X
    • Cite
    • Citations: 21
  • Journal article
    Mozer F, Bale S, Kellogg P, Romeo O, Vasko I, Verniero Jet al., 2023,

    , PHYSICS OF PLASMAS, Vol: 30, ISSN: 1070-664X
    • Cite
    • Citations: 10
  • Journal article
    Stjern CW, Forster PM, Jia H, Jouan C, Kasoar MR, Myhre G, Olivie D, Quaas J, Samset BH, Sand M, Takemura T, Voulgarakis A, Wells CDet al., 2023,

    , JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, Vol: 36, Pages: 3537-3551, ISSN: 0894-8755
    • Cite
    • Citations: 14
  • Journal article
    Fargette N, Lavraud B, Rouillard AP, Houdayer PS, Phan TD, 脴ieroset M, Eastwood JP, Nicolaou G, Fedorov A, Louarn P, Owen CJ, Horbury TSet al., 2023,

    , Astronomy and Astrophysics: a European journal, Vol: 674, Pages: 1-15, ISSN: 0004-6361

    Context. Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental process in astrophysical plasmas that enables the dissipation of magnetic energy at kinetic scales. Detecting this process in situ is therefore key to furthering our understanding of energy conversion in space plasmas. However, reconnection jets typically scale from seconds to minutes in situ, and as such, finding them in the decades of data provided by solar wind missions since the beginning of the space era is an onerous task.Aims. In this work, we present a new approach for automatically identifying reconnection exhausts in situ in the solar wind. We apply the algorithm to Solar Orbiter data obtained while the spacecraft was positioned at between 0.6 and 0.8 AU and perform a statistical study on the jets we detect.Methods. The method for automatic detection is inspired by the visual identification process and strongly relies on the Walén relation. It is enhanced through the use of Bayesian inference and physical considerations to detect reconnection jets with a consistent approach.Results. Applying the detection algorithm to one month of Solar Orbiter data near 0.7 AU, we find an occurrence rate of seven jets per day, which is significantly higher than in previous studies performed at 1 AU. We show that they tend to cluster in the solar wind and are less likely to occur in the tenuous solar wind (< 10 cm−3 near 0.7 AU). We discuss why the source and the degree of Alfvénicity of the solar wind might have an impact on magnetic reconnection occurrence.Conclusions. By providing a tool to quickly identify potential magnetic reconnection exhausts in situ, we pave the way for broader statistical studies on magnetic reconnection in diverse plasma environments.
  • Journal article
    Concepcion F, Clear CP, Ding M, Pickering JCet al., 2023,

    , EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL D, Vol: 77, ISSN: 1434-6060
  • Journal article
    Liu M, Issautier K, Moncuquet M, Meyer-Vernet N, Maksimovic M, Huang J, Martinovic MM, Griton L, Chrysaphi N, Jagarlamudi VK, Bale SD, Pulupa M, Kasper JC, Stevens MLet al., 2023,

    , ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS, Vol: 674, ISSN: 0004-6361
    • Cite
    • Citations: 14
  • Journal article
    Zhong C, Cheng S, Kasoar M, Arcucci Ret al., 2023,

    , NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, Vol: 23, Pages: 1755-1768, ISSN: 1561-8633
    • Cite
    • Citations: 38
  • Journal article
    Burne S, Bertucci C, Sergis N, Morales LF, Achilleos N, Sanchez-Cano B, Collado-Vega Y, Dasso S, Edberg NJT, Kurth BSet al., 2023,

    , ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 948, ISSN: 0004-637X
  • Journal article
    Nair V, Devenish B, van Reeuwijk M, 2023,

    , FLOW TURBULENCE AND COMBUSTION, Vol: 110, Pages: 889-915, ISSN: 1386-6184
  • Journal article
    Rodenkirchen C, Ackerman AK, Mignanelli PM, Cliff A, Wise GJ, Breul P, Douglas JO, Bagot PAJ, Moody MP, Appleton M, Ryan MP, Hardy MC, Pedrazzini S, Stone HJet al., 2023,

    , METALLURGICAL AND MATERIALS TRANSACTIONS A-PHYSICAL METALLURGY AND MATERIALS SCIENCE, Vol: 54, Pages: 1902-1923, ISSN: 1073-5623
  • Journal article
    Madanian H, Omidi N, Sibeck DG, Andersson L, Ramstad R, Xu S, Gruesbeck JR, Schwartz SJ, Frahm RA, Brain DA, Kajdic P, Eparvier FG, Mitchell DL, Curry SMet al., 2023,

    , GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 50, ISSN: 0094-8276
  • Journal article
    Cael BB, Bloch-Johnson J, Ceppi P, Fredriksen H-B, Goodwin P, Gregory JM, Smith CJ, Williams RGet al., 2023,

    , Science Advances, Vol: 9

    <jats:p> The climate feedback determines how Earth’s climate responds to anthropogenic forcing. It is thought to have been more negative in recent decades due to a sea surface temperature “pattern effect,” whereby warming is concentrated in the western tropical Pacific, where nonlocal radiative feedbacks are very negative. This phenomenon has however primarily been studied within climate models. We diagnose a pattern effect from historical records as an evolution of the climate feedback over the past five decades. Our analysis assumes a constant rate of change of the climate feedback, which is justified post hoc. We find a decrease in climate feedback by 0.8 ± 0.5 W m <jats:sup>−2</jats:sup> K <jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> over the past 50 years, corresponding to a reduction in climate sensitivity. Earth system models’ climate feedbacks instead increase over this period. Understanding and simulating this historical trend and its future evolution are critical for reliable climate projections. </jats:p>
  • Journal article
    Jensen EA, Gopalswamy N, Wilson LB, Jian LK, Fung SF, Nieves-Chinchilla T, Shelton M, Li L, Deshpande M, Purves L, Lazio J, Manchester WB, Wood BE, Kooi JE, Wexler DB, Bale S, Pevtsov A, Jackson BV, Kenny MNet al., 2023,

    , FRONTIERS IN ASTRONOMY AND SPACE SCIENCES, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2296-987X
  • Journal article
    Froment C, Agapitov OV, Krasnoselskikh V, Karbashewski S, Dudok de Wit T, Larosa A, Colomban L, Malaspina D, Kretzschmar M, Jagarlamudi VK, Bale SD, Bonnell JW, Mozer FS, Pulupa Met al., 2023,

    , ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS, Vol: 672, ISSN: 0004-6361
    • Cite
    • Citations: 13
  • Journal article
    Gryspeerdt E, Povey AC, Grainger RG, Hasekamp O, Hsu NC, Mulcahy JP, Sayer AM, Sorooshian Aet al., 2023,

    , Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol: 23, Pages: 4115-4122, ISSN: 1680-7316

    Atmospheric aerosols and their impact on cloud properties remain the largest uncertainty in the human forcing of theclimate system. By increasing the concentration of cloud droplets (Nd ), aerosols reduce droplet size and increase the reflectivity of clouds (a negative radiative forcing). Central to this climate impact is the susceptibility of cloud droplet number to aerosol (β ), the diversity of which explains much of the variation in the radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions (RFaci) in global climate models. This has made measuring β a key target for developing observational constraints of the aerosol forcing. While the aerosol burden of the clean, pre-industrial atmosphere has been demonstrated as a key uncertainty for the aerosol forcing, here we show that the behaviour of clouds under these clean conditions is of equal importance for understanding the spread in radiative forcing estimates between models and observations. This means that the uncertainty in the aerosol impact on clouds is, counterintuitively, driven by situations with little aerosol. Discarding clean conditions produces a close agreement between different model and observational estimates of the cloud response to aerosol, but does not provide a strong constraint on the RFaci. This makes constraining aerosol behaviour in clean conditions an important goal for future observational studies.
  • Journal article
    Safrankova J, Nemecek Z, Nemec F, Verscharen D, Horbury TS, Bale SD, Prech Let al., 2023,

    , ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS, Vol: 946, ISSN: 2041-8205
    • Cite
    • Citations: 10

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