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Climate change substantially increased the damages caused by Typhoons Kalmaegi and Fung-wong, two rapid analyses by Imperial has found.

Human-induced climate change increased both the wind speed and rainfall of two deadly typhoons that struck Pacific nations this month.

The Climate Damage Tracker studies, carried out using the Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS) while COP30 is underway in Belém in Brazil, found that climate change increased the direct economic damages unleashed by Fung-wong in the Philippines by 42% and increased the damages caused by Kalmaegi in Vietnam by 9%.

Climate change intensified the wind and rain of both storms

The typhoons also delivered intense rainfall to the Philippines and Vietnam, leading to severe flooding and landslides.

found that human-induced warming of the climate intensified Fung-wong’s rainfall by 10.5% (1.5mm/h) and wind speed by 5% (9km/h [6mph]).

The study on Typhoon Kalmaegi found that human-induced warming of the climate intensified Kalmaegi’s rainfall by 8.6% (1.0mm/h) and wind speed by 3% (6km/h [4mph]).

To calculate the damage caused by climate change, researchers first estimated the value of the assets (homes, property and so on) of the areas hit by the storms and how ‘exposed’ or vulnerable they are relative to the intensity of any given storm. Then by comparing how intense a storm is under different warming scenarios using changes in wind speed, they estimated the extent of damage in a world with no warming, today with 1.3°C of warming, and also a future with 2°C of warming. The difference between the estimates for a world with no warming and today with 1.3°C of warming revealed how much, as a percentage, the damage has increased due to climate change (42% for Fung-wong and 9% by Kalmaegi).

Typhoon Kalmaegi was a Category 4 typhoon with a reported life-time maximum wind speed of 210 km/h [130mph] in the South China Sea. It made landfall as a Category 3 typhoon in Vietnam on the 6 November. Kalmaegi’s rainfall caused extensive damage in the Philippines and Vietnam.

Fung-wong was the most powerful typhoon landfalling in the Philippines in 2025. It was a Category 4 typhoon with a reported life-time maximum wind speed of 213 km/h [132mph] in the Philippine Sea. It made landfall as a Category 3 typhoon in the Philippines on 9 November.

Professor Ralf Toumi, Director of the Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment, ������ý, said:

“Our analysis shows that storms like Typhoon Kalmaegi and Super Typhoon Fung-wong are becoming more frequent, dangerous, and costly because of the continued use of fossil fuels.

“COP30 is an opportunity to prevent further warming but also to support countries and communities to adapt to climate change.”

Typhoons are becoming more likely and frequent due to climate change

The Imperial researchers found that climate change increased the likelihood of both typhoons.

In today’s climate, with 1.3°C warming, a Fung-wong-type typhoon has become 17% more likely, while a Kalmaegi-type typhoon has become 33% more likely.

Dr Emily Theokritoff, Research Associate in Climate Damage Attribution at the Grantham Institute said:

“Our studies capture only a partial view of the far-reaching human and economic costs caused by Typhoons Kalmaegi and Fung-wong.

“As COP30 unfolds, this serves as a powerful reminder of the urgent economic case for cutting emissions now, and the moral responsibility to rapidly scale up international finance for loss & damage and adaptation in vulnerable countries.”

More warming will create more extreme and intense storms

The researchers warn that such extreme typhoons will continue to intensify as the global average temperature increases.

In a world with 2°C of warming, wind speeds and rainfall would be even higher and the economic damages would be even greater in both cases.

In a world warmed by 2°C, a Fung-wong-type typhoon would result in 63% more in damages compared to a pre-industrial climate, due to a further 4km/h [2.5mph] increase in wind speeds and a further 1.1mm/h in rainfall.

For Kalmaegi, damages would be 26% higher in a 2°C world compared to a cooler world with no climate change, driven by a further 8km/h [5mph] increase in wind speeds and further 1.3mm/h increase in rainfall.

The Climate Damage Tracker

These studies are the third and fourth on tropical cyclones in 2025 by the Climate Damage Tracker, an initiative at ������ý that estimates the human and economic costs of climate change.

So far this year, the researchers have studied Hurricane Melissa and Typhoon Ragasa, following similar analyses in 2024 of Hurricanes Milton, Helene and Shanshan.