Policy

Listen: The Standard’s Tech and Science Daily podcast interviews Dr Mark Kennedy on the US supreme court’s TikTok ban

Evie Burrows-Taylor — Mon, 20 Jan 2025 11:43:18 +0000

Listen: The Standard’s Tech and Science Daily podcast interviews Dr Mark Kennedy on the US supreme court’s TikTok ban Evie Burrows-Taylor Mon, 20/01/2025 - 11:43

15 January 2025

Digital transformation

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Dr Heeyoung Yoon on consumer judgment, bias and better decision-making

Shamita Harsh — Wed, 15 Jan 2025 12:14:02 +0000

Dr Heeyoung Yoon on consumer judgment, bias and better decision-making

Shamita Harsh Wed, 15/01/2025 - 12:14

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Dr Yoon’s research investigates how consumers predict their consumption and experiences, why those predictions are often systematically biased, and how better-designed choices can improve both individual well-being and broader societal outcomes.

As Assistant Professor of Marketing at Imperial Business School, Heeyoung Yoon brings a research agenda that blends consumer psychology, marketing, and public policy. Her work focuses on the ways in which consumers form expectations, how these expectations deviate from reality, and how such biases influence everyday choices.

At the heart of her research is the question: why do people so often mispredict their own behaviours? From overestimating how much they will enjoy a product, to underestimating the influence of situational and contextual factors, these biases can have far-reaching consequences. Dr Yoon’s research sheds light on the psychological processes behind these systematic errors, while also identifying interventions that can guide individuals toward more beneficial and sustainable decisions.

From consumer psychology to societal impact

Dr Yoon’s research is motivated not only by curiosity about how people think but also by the desire to improve outcomes for individuals and society. She studies how consumer mispredictions influence decisions with long-term implications for well-being, sustainability, and even carbon emissions. For example, her work reveals how consumers’ misplaced confidence in preference as the primary driver of consumption can lead to inaccurate forecasts and suboptimal decisions.

By highlighting the role of overlooked factors such as habits, motivation and availability, her research demonstrates that small shifts in framing, design, or choice architecture can promote better consumer outcomes. This focus places her work at the intersection of academic inquiry and practical solutions, offering insights for marketers, policymakers, and organisations seeking to encourage prosocial and sustainable behaviour.

The gap between prediction and reality

In a recent article published in the Journal of Consumer Research, Dr Yoon shows that consumers systematically overestimate the role of personal preference in determining how much they consume. While people predict that “liking” will drive consumption quantity, contextual factors like availability and habit often play a stronger role. This disconnect helps explain why consumption predictions are frequently inaccurate and why interventions that take account of these overlooked influences may be more effective in guiding healthier and more sustainable decisions.

In her ongoing projects, she continues to investigate biases in assortment choices, comparison judgments, and sustainability decisions. These lines of inquiry build a comprehensive picture of how expectations and decision structures shape consumer behaviour.

Dr Yoon completed her PhD in Marketing at New York University’s Stern School of Business. Her academic training and research experience equip her with a strong foundation in both experimental methods and theory-driven inquiry. By bringing these approaches to Imperial, she aims to expand collaborations that cut across marketing, psychology, and public policy.

On joining Imperial, she reflected: “Imperial’s commitment to world-leading research and global impact makes it an inspiring place to be. I’m excited to contribute to and learn from colleagues who are advancing solutions to some of the most pressing challenges of our time.”

At Imperial Business School, Dr Yoon looks forward to continuing her research into consumer judgment and decision-making while building connections with colleagues working on sustainability, behavioural science, and social impact. Her goal is to develop insights that not only advance academic knowledge but also create meaningful benefits for consumers and society.

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Dr Yoon talks about consumer behaviour and interventions that can guide towards more sustainable decisions.

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3 minute read

Jasmin Moshfegh on the economics of healthcare innovation

Shamita Harsh — Wed, 15 Jan 2025 12:14:02 +0000

Jasmin Moshfegh on the economics of healthcare innovation

Shamita Harsh Wed, 15/01/2025 - 12:14

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Healthcare management and policy

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Understanding how new medical technologies diffuse through health systems, especially including who gets access to them, is central to Dr Jasmin Moshfegh’s research. Joining Imperial Business School in 2025 as Assistant Professor of Economics & Public Policy, she brings a research agenda that sits at the intersection of health economics and healthcare innovation.

How precision medicine and health equity intersect

Her work examines the causes and consequences of healthcare innovation, with a focus on precision medicine, AI and assisted reproductive technologies. By combining quasi-experimental methods with large administrative datasets and cancer registries, she sheds light on how institutional and policy choices shape both efficiency and equity in healthcare delivery.

Her job market paper, supported by the US Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), studies the adoption of genomic testing in breast cancer care—showing that while precision medicine can reduce unnecessary treatments, it may also exacerbate racial disparities.

Dr Moshfegh completed her PhD in Health Policy (Economics) at Stanford University, where she was also a T32 Fellow and R36 awardee from AHRQ. She went on to hold a Postdoctoral Fellowship at Stanford, alongside appointments as a Fellow at the US Department of Veterans Affairs and the National Cancer Institute at the National Institutes of Health. Her research has been supported by grants from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the SIEPR George P. Shultz Fund and the Sweden-America Foundation.

Extending research into new frontiers

Dr Moshfegh studies the causes and consequences of healthcare innovation, with a particular focus on information technologies. She is extending her work to explore the impact of next-generation diabetes drugs in the US Veterans population and the role of AI tools in improving women’s health in India.

Reflecting on her move to London, she said: “What excites me most about joining Imperial is the opportunity to be part of a department and institution that sits at the intersection of cutting-edge research, interdisciplinary collaboration, and real-world impact. Imperial’s unique ecosystem brings these disciplines together in a way that few other places can.”

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Dr Moshfegh discusses how her research in precision medicine is aimed at reducing health inequalities

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2 minute read

Bold goals, missed levers: Will the NHS 10-Year Health Plan go far enough?

Jack Olney — Wed, 15 Jan 2025 12:14:02 +0000

Bold goals, missed levers: Will the NHS 10-Year Health Plan go far enough?

Jack Olney Wed, 15/01/2025 - 12:14

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Healthy diets, exercise and healthy habits – the goals are deceptively simple but persuading the public is complicated. The NHS’s new 10-Year Health Plan for England signals a welcome focus on prevention rather than cure, tackling tobacco, alcohol, junk food and other causes of ill health. But could the plan go further?

Could the UK build on its success with the pioneering "sugar tax" to help slash consumption of sugary foods – and extend a similar levy more widely? Research by Professor Franco Sassi, Director of the Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation (CHEPI) at Imperial Business School, indicates the government could be bolder still.

CHEPI’s research reveals that not all proposals within the plan are backed by research. A focus on low alcohol drinks for instance could be counterproductive as the advertising of branded low alcohol alternatives is fuelling appetites for their alcoholic counterparts.

But the plan heralds a welcome shift in mindset and an urgent attempt to nip health problems in the bud. Ending the obesity epidemic is a “moonshot”, but inaction already costs the NHS an estimated £19 billion a year.

Fiscal tools for prevention

Are policy makers neglecting fiscal tools in tackling the crisis?

The UK’s sugar tax showed how effective economic incentives can be. More than half of drink manufacturers cut sugar content before the levy was introduced, and sales of sugary drinks fell afterwards.

CHEPI’s research has shown that an expansion of a tax similar to the Soft Drinks Industry Levy to encompass sugary foods more widely could cut sugar purchases by as much as 38 per cent in some foods. Other fiscal measures identified by Professor Sassi and CHEPI’s research that the government could deploy — such as a tax based on nutrient thresholds— could cut purchases of sugar and calories by up to 15 per cent.

Companies that heavily advertise their low or no alcohol alternatives go on to increase sales of their same-brand alcoholic beer – in other words, encouraging low alcohol brands inadvertently fuels alcohol consumption, among light drinkers, according to research by Dr Stijn Maesen at Imperial Business School.

Policy makers could avoid this “halo effect” by restricting ads for both low and high alcohol products, while emphasising genuine health benefits such as fewer calories. Low alcohol alternatives still play a role, particularly for anyone trying to cut back as it’s the heavy drinkers who are most likely to consume them.

But there are equity concerns: low alcohol drinks are often more expensive, meaning the heaviest health burdens – which fall on deprived groups – are not alleviated. Ensuring affordability must be part of the strategy if inequity is to be addressed.

Navigating the junk food market and corporate accountability

Proposed restrictions on the marketing of junk food and sale of caffeinated drinks to young people are overdue. Evidence shows that reducing exposure to unhealthy food and drink reduces consumption of these products, especially in young people. Regulation could be even more effective if it were to extend to brand marketing and digital media and incentivise the promotion of healthy products

In a world first, the plan requires large food companies to report the healthiness of the food they sell – this will inform new mandatory healthiness targets on food sales. This is ambitious and welcome – “Our research shows that policies must tackle both demand and supply factors behind poor diets,” says Professor Sassi, “which means not only educating and incentivising consumers but also mandating reformulation and responsible marketing by industry.”

Today, the poorest 20 per cent of households need to spend half of their disposable income to eat a recommended healthy diet, compared with just 11 per cent for the richest 20 per cent. Better access to free school meals, food vouchers and higher nutritional standards in schools outlined in the plan are a promising step towards redressing the imbalance.

Weight loss drugs for obesity embraced by the plan show strong short-term results but should only complement rather than replace policies such as encouraging physical activity and healthier diets which yield longer term benefits.

Digital tools and behaviour change

New health rewards and ambitious partnerships with fitness experts proposed in the plan could encourage people to become more active. CHEPI’s research reveals that the wearables and digital health technology embraced here do indeed help people get and stay fitter.

Research by Professor Marisa Miraldo shows that programmes that tap into peer support and existing social networks can amplify the impact of rewards for healthy choices. But these schemes must be accessible to the people who need them most – not just the healthy – with interventions designed for specific communities, or with higher rewards and incentives for those at greater risk of unhealthy lifestyles.

The reasons people choose to smoke, drink, or eat poorly are complex, and behavioural science reveals the risk that individuals will revert to former unhealthy habits once a scheme ends. This can be avoided with the careful design of a programme which draws on behavioural insights and fosters intrinsic motivation - gradually building stable habits by combining rewards with education and social recognition for instance, or by making healthy activities enjoyable.

Preventative healthcare investment can result in a more productive workforce

Poor health is a human tragedy but also an economic drain. Obesity and related diseases cut the UK’s economic output by 3.4 per cent of GDP - that’s equivalent to an annual tax per person of £409.

Investing in prevention is not just good for health; it strengthens the economy by creating a more productive workforce and reducing healthcare costs. But prevention requires sustained funding, political will and collaboration across sectors – all of which have too often been sidelined by short-term crises.

The NHS 10-Year Health Plan heralds a significant shift of mindset from reactive care to proactive prevention, but the question is not whether the UK can afford to invest in prevention, but whether it can afford not to.

This piece brings expertise from across CHEPI and Imperial Business School, including Professor Franco Sassi, Professor Marisa Miraldo and Dr Stijn Maesen.

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The Health Plan can help build a stronger NHS provided policymakers have access to the latest evidence in order to make informed decisions and address inequalities.

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Key lessons from Costa Rica’s attempt to use taxation to boost healthy eating

Maxime Roche — Wed, 15 Jan 2025 12:14:02 +0000

Key lessons from Costa Rica’s attempt to use taxation to boost healthy eating

Maxime Roche Wed, 15/01/2025 - 12:14

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In 2023, Costa Rica became the first country in the world to link the rates of value-added tax (VAT) on food with nutritional goals. This reform revised the basic tax basket – the list of items taxed at the lowest rate of VAT – and was intended, in the government’s words, to ‘guarantee a balanced diet’.

But it may have misfired. In a recent study, using the latest two waves of the national household budget survey linked with nutritional composition data, I’ve found the reform to be associated with the purchase of more calories, sugar, and saturated fat. What’s gone wrong?

Impacts of the reform

Costa Rica has some of the highest rates of overweightness and obesity in Central America, especially among children. At the same time, healthy diets are the second most expensive in Latin America.

Discounted food items were pre-selected according to the purchasing patterns of the poorest 30 per cent of households. While previously not involved in this process, the reform mandated that the Ministry of Health assess the nutritional suitability of the identified list. Items included in the basic tax basket were ultimately selected in agreement between the economy, finance, and health ministries.

But the curation of the reformed list was opaque, with an apparent lack of nutritional criteria. While the list has more healthy staples and approximately double the number of fruits and vegetables under the lower VAT rate of one per cent, unhealthy and highly processed foods such as ketchup, mayonnaise, sweet biscuits and more have also crept in, avoiding the higher VAT rate of 13 per cent. Overall, 26 highly processed savoury food items – representing 68 per cent of the total quantity consumed in that food group – are now effectively discounted, up from 15 items before the reform.

As a result, the reform is associated with the purchase of 0.7 per cent more calories, 0.4 per cent more sugar, and 1.2 per cent more saturated fat, and no overall improvement in the nutritional content of Costa Rican diets.

What could be done differently?

By simulating alternative policy designs, I find that VAT discounts applied according to clear nutritional criteria could instead reduce the purchase of sodium (-1.0 per cent), saturated fat (-0.6 per cent), and calories (-0.2 per cent), with greater benefits for lower-income households, without increasing household spending.

The most effective approach involves differentiating VAT rates according to a nutrient profile model – in this study, I considered the model established by the Pan American Health Organisation (the World Health Organization Regional Office for the Americas). These standards provide evidence-based nutrient content limits to identify healthier and less healthy foods, set evidence-based nutrient content thresholds to identify healthier and less healthy foods. They are increasingly used in food policy, such as regulating the marketing of foods to children in the UK.

The research also reveals that while lower-income households are more sensitive to price changes, the demand for highly processed foods is inelastic in Costa Rica - it doesn’t fall away to the same extent as prices increase. For instance, a one per cent price rise results in a less than one per cent drop in consumption. This means prices would have to rise more steeply to discourage Costa Ricans from unhealthy foods.

Costa Rica now has an opening to amend the reform – by law, the government is obliged to review the list of discounted items in the event of a new household expenditure survey, and one took place in 2024 with results due later this year. This presents a timely opportunity to revise the basic tax basket according to evidence-based quantitative nutritional criteria in order to encourage better diets.

Policy implications

Taxation has already emerged as one of the most powerful tools to improve public health. Governments have applied it to harmful products such as tobacco and alcohol for decades, and more recently to sugary drinks – more than half the world’s population is now covered by a tax on sugary drinks. But foods high in fat, salt, or sugar represent a larger tax base – any tax targeting these items without lowering the tax burden on healthier alternatives may raise equity concerns.

Countries with existing varying VAT or sales tax rates on foods have an opportunity to align these rates with nutritional objectives to make healthy foods more affordable while discouraging consumption of junk foods. However, taxing foods based on nutritional content may incur tax administration and compliance costs. There are also largely unknown implications for tax revenue efficiency.

In addition to this work in Costa Rica, researchers at the Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation have previously systematised the evidence around taxes for healthy eating. They are currently evaluating options for India and the UK to reform existing differentiated VAT rates to promote healthier diets using an in-house microsimulation tool, Health-GPS, to simulate future health and economic outcomes.

Now, all eyes are on Colombia, where lawmakers have recently introduced a tax on ultra-processed foods high in salt, sugar, and saturated fat, albeit with some exceptions. But taxation is only part of the solution. As is underway in Colombia, a combination of tax increases and clear label warnings on unhealthy foods, as identified using nutrient profiling, could help further shift the dial towards healthier choices, with lasting impacts on public health.

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Can VAT reforms improve diets?

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4 minute read

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